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Crystal Ball

Crystal Ball

Some people believe that organizations must continue to determine what they should look like and be doing in three, five, or even ten years in order to create strategies to guide their businesses today. This is based on the original “modern” strategic approach created by Peter Drucker and Alfred Sloane at GM in the 50s. It is, by my math, three-quarters of a century old. Would you like to explain to me how many issues, products, services have not changed in 75 years (other than our dreadful educational system)?

It’s more important to look perhaps a year ahead, given the accelerating change in technology, social mores, demographics, geopolitical conflicts, and a myriad of other factors. And it’s important to actively and constantly look to make adjustments, not annually at some retreat or with “lip service” at regular leadership meetings.

Whether capital intensive or not, agility is the key, not some path etched in stone and pursued like a sloth.

Recently, a multi-year cruise ship—traveling around the world on the premise the passengers would spend less in residence at sea than on land—gave customes two hours to disembark in Cambodia and find their own lodgings because the ship could no longer pay for fuel in the Far East. Prices had exploded, and the premise was that the ship would always be fully booked. Everyone of these ventures but one that I know of has gone bust.

California spent $15 billion of taxpayer money over 18 years for a high speed train from Los Angeles to San Francisco. Certainly a great idea with strong attraction, right? To this date, not a single rail has been laid, nor will it, apparently. Apple, on the other hand, a capital-intensive operation, has decided to move new products out of the labs and into the retail stores much more quickly. The company’s market cap is over $5 trillion.

You can’t see over the horizon, and the horizon is closer than ever.

Written by

Alan Weiss is a consultant, speaker, and author of over 60 books. His consulting firm, Summit Consulting Group, Inc., has attracted clients from over 500 leading organizations around the world.

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