We tend to focus on volatility but right now Harley Davidson is in big trouble because its primary demographic has become elderly and physically unable to ride traditional motorcycles (or even lift them if they’ve fallen). They saw that coming over the years, but really have done nothing about it. The are pulling out of India, which has 17% of the entire word’s population, because their bikes don’t fit the culture, the streets, the economy.
If Sears should have morphed into Amazon, why didn’t Harley morph into those urban, motored scooters, or motored paddle boards at resorts, or Jet Skis?
Glaciers changed the topography of continents. They were unstoppable. Recognizing demographic shifts is pretty easy in comparison. If your brain isn’t frozen.